Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

19 trading strategies — backtested, analyzed, and documented

Backtesting Methodology

Period
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025 (5.2 years)
Universe
62 symbols (Binance USDT)
Data
1-hour OHLCV candles
Costs
0.1% commission + 0.05% slippage
Starting Balance
$10,000 per strategy
Position Sizing
Kelly (25% fraction, 40% cap)
Mode
Isolated (each strategy independent)
Self-Healing
Auto parameter adaptation on loss

Profitable

Correlation Break

Profitable

BTC-alt linear regression mean reversion

Source

Computes the expected return of an altcoin given BTC's 1-hour return using linear regression over 200 data points. When the alt's actual return diverges significantly from what BTC predicts, the strategy trades the reversion. Goes long when the alt underperforms BTC by more than 8%, and shorts when it overperforms by more than 6.5%. Avoids historically low-alpha coins via a 10-symbol blacklist.

Long threshold
divergence < -0.08
Short threshold
divergence > 0.065
Stop / Target
3% / 5%
Blacklist
EOS, QTUM, TRX, LTC, BNT, NEO, ATOM, ADA, ICX, THETA
58.7%
Win Rate
5,930
Trades
1,031.9%
CAGR
$3.37B from $10K
P&L (5.2yr)

Cross-Exchange Divergence

Profitable

Spot vs futures price divergence arbitrage

Source

Compares prices of the same asset on Binance Spot vs Binance Futures. When a significant price dislocation appears (z-score > 2.5), the strategy trades the convergence. These dislocations arise from leverage imbalances in the futures market and typically close within hours.

Min divergence
1.0%
Z-score threshold
>= 2.5
Stop
0.8%
68.7%
Win Rate
134
Trades
4.6%
CAGR
$12.6K from $10K
P&L (5.2yr)

Listing Pump

Profitable

Exchange listing pump detection with real listing dates

Source

Uses real Binance Futures listing dates (onboardDate from exchangeInfo API) to detect when a token first becomes available. Enters within 6 hours of listing with volume confirmation (2x+ normal). Rides the initial price surge that accompanies new exchange listings.

Entry window
6h after listing
Volume confirm
2x+ average
Stop / Target
15% / 20%
59.5%
Win Rate
42
Trades
9.6%
CAGR
$16.2K from $10K
P&L (5.2yr)

Unprofitable — Being Re-Engineered

Funding Rate Extreme

Unprofitable

Funding rate extreme reversals using real Binance data

Source

Monitors perpetual futures funding rates from Binance. When funding becomes extremely positive (longs paying shorts heavily), the strategy shorts overleveraged longs. Vice versa for extreme negative funding. Uses real funding rate data, but lacks historical open interest for proper quality filtering.

Data source
Binance funding rate API (real)
Direction
Counter to funding
Stop / Target
6% / 8%
48.0%
Win Rate
3,741
Trades
-17.4%
CAGR
-$5.7K
P&L (5.2yr)
Missing historical OI data (free API only covers 30 days). With OI filter, this strategy was profitable at 54.3% WR in self-healing mode.

Correlation Break (ETH)

Unprofitable

ETH-referenced correlation break, short-only

Source

Same linear regression divergence approach as the BTC version, but uses ETH as the reference asset. Only takes short positions based on research showing longs lose money on ETH correlation.

Reference
ETH
Direction
Short only
54%
Win Rate
~2,000
Trades
Negative
CAGR
Net negative
P&L (5.2yr)
Edge too thin to overcome exchange fees on a per-trade basis.

Fear & Greed Contrarian

Unprofitable

Contrarian trades on extreme Fear & Greed Index

Source

Takes contrarian positions when the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hits extremes. Goes long at FGI <= 15 (extreme fear) and shorts at FGI >= 90 (extreme greed). Research from Nasdaq shows this strategy beats buy-and-hold over 7 years.

Long
FGI <= 15
Short
FGI >= 90
~50%
Win Rate
12
Trades
~0%
CAGR
Break-even
P&L (5.2yr)
Used BTC-RSI proxy instead of real FGI. Free API exists at alternative.me — being fixed with real data.

Momentum Swing

Unprofitable

1h momentum breakout

Source

Buys when price shows strong upward momentum on 1-hour candles with volume confirmation. The problem: by the time momentum is confirmed on hourly candles, the move is largely over.

Timeframe
1h (should be 4h)
Entry
Breakout (should be pullback)
37.7%
Win Rate
~8,000
Trades
Bankrupt
CAGR
-100%
P&L (5.2yr)
Wrong timeframe and entry method. Research shows 4h candles with pullback entry (RSI 40-45 in uptrend) is profitable.

EMA Crossover

Unprofitable

EMA(12/50) crossover with MACD + ADX filter

Source

Classic EMA crossover — long when EMA(12) crosses above EMA(50), with MACD histogram confirmation and ADX > 25 trend filter. Long only, avoiding crypto's structural short bias.

EMAs
12 / 50
Filters
MACD+ , ADX > 25
Timeframe
1h (should be 4h/daily)
46.8%
Win Rate
~3,000
Trades
-73%
CAGR
-73%
P&L (5.2yr)
Hourly candles too noisy for EMA crossovers. Research shows EMA(13/48) on 4h with 200-EMA trend filter is profitable.

Bollinger Band Squeeze

Unprofitable

BB inside Keltner Channel squeeze release

Source

Detects when Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channels (John Carter's TTM Squeeze). Trades the breakout when the squeeze releases, using MACD histogram for direction.

Squeeze
BB inside KC
Direction
MACD histogram
Timeframe
1h (should be 4h)
44.9%
Win Rate
~2,500
Trades
-75%
CAGR
-75%
P&L (5.2yr)
Squeeze detection too coarse on 1h. Research shows 4h with squeeze duration > 6 bars and KC middle trailing stop is profitable.

RSI Divergence

Unprofitable

RSI divergence with confirmation candle

Source

Detects divergence between price and RSI — when price makes a new low but RSI makes a higher low (bullish), or vice versa. Requires confirmation candle and ADX filter.

RSI
< 35 / > 65
Confirmation
Next candle
ADX filter
< 35
N/A
Win Rate
0
Trades
N/A
CAGR
No trades
P&L (5.2yr)
Filters too strict on 1h data. Research shows 4h with RSI(14), looser thresholds (40/60), and support/resistance alignment generates signals.

Trend Following

Unprofitable

EMA(9/21) trend following

Source

Follows trends using EMA(9)/EMA(21) crossovers. Enters long when fast EMA crosses above slow, exits on reverse cross.

EMAs
9 / 21
Timeframe
1h (should be daily)
43.6%
Win Rate
~5,000
Trades
Bankrupt
CAGR
-100%
P&L (5.2yr)
EMA crossover whipsaws on 1h. Research shows Donchian Channel (15-day breakout) on daily candles with ATR position sizing has 145% CAGR on BTC.

Volume Breakout

Unprofitable

Volume spike + price breakout

Source

Trades price breakouts accompanied by above-average volume. The idea is that volume validates the breakout. Uses raw volume comparison.

Signal
Price breakout + vol spike
Timeframe
1h
36.4%
Win Rate
~6,000
Trades
Bankrupt
CAGR
-100%
P&L (5.2yr)
Raw volume comparison is wrong — need RVOL (relative volume) > 2.0x with OBV divergence confirmation and multi-timeframe validation.

Mean Reversion

Unprofitable

BB-based (backtest) / VWAP-based (production)

Source

Backtest uses Bollinger Band extremes, production uses VWAP deviation — a fundamental parity mismatch that invalidates results.

Backtest
Bollinger Bands
Production
VWAP deviation
N/A
Win Rate
0
Trades
N/A
CAGR
No trades
P&L (5.2yr)
Backtest/production parity broken. Being unified with VWAP + BB combined approach at +/- 2-3 standard deviations.

Liquidation Cascade

Unprofitable

Post-cascade bounce using price-drop proxy

Source

Detects cascading liquidation events and trades the post-cascade bounce. Uses price drop + volume spike as proxy for real liquidation data.

Signal
-7% drop + 4x volume
Direction
Long (bounce)
~30%
Win Rate
~200
Trades
Negative
CAGR
Loss
P&L (5.2yr)
Used price-drop proxy instead of real liquidation data. Needs Coinglass ($50/mo) for historical liquidation events + OI.

Pending Backtest — Need External Data

Narrative Momentum

Pending

Sector rotation laggard catch-up via social velocity

Source

Identifies crypto sector rotations by tracking social media buzz velocity. When a narrative (AI tokens, RWA, DePIN) gains rapid attention, buys lagging tokens in that sector before the rotation reaches them.

Signal
Social velocity spike
Entry
Lagging sector member
Data needed: LunarCrush social velocity data — API key configured, loader not built yet.

Protocol Revenue

Pending

Trades tokens with surging on-chain protocol revenue

Source

Monitors on-chain protocol revenue and fee generation via DefiLlama. When a protocol shows sustained revenue surge, buys the token — revenue is a fundamental indicator that cuts through hype.

Signal
Revenue growth rate
Data
DefiLlama (free)
Data needed: DefiLlama protocol metrics — completely free, no auth required. Loader not built yet.

Order Book Imbalance

Pending

Trades bid/ask depth imbalances in L2 order book

Source

Analyzes Level 2 order book depth to detect significant bid/ask imbalances. Heavy bid wall with thin asks suggests upward pressure. Trades in direction of the imbalance.

Signal
Bid/ask ratio > 3x
Min depth
$2M
Data needed: Historical L2 order book snapshots — Tardis.dev (~$100/mo).

Whale Accumulation

Pending

Follows whale exchange flow patterns

Source

Tracks large wallet flows between exchanges and cold storage. When whales move significant amounts off exchanges (accumulation), goes long. Exchange inflows (distribution) trigger shorts.

Signal
Net exchange flow
Threshold
$7M+ flow
Data needed: On-chain whale transfer data — Whale Alert ($79/mo) or Nansen.

Momentum Scalp

Pending

5-minute scalp momentum with freshness check

Source

High-frequency 5-minute scalping that captures quick momentum bursts. Unlike hourly strategies that lag, 5-minute timeframe catches moves early. Requires sub-hourly candle data.

Timeframe
5m candles
Style
Quick momentum scalps
Data needed: 5-minute OHLCV candles — free from Binance, just needs downloading (~34M candles for 5yr).
Data from Binance public API · Backtested with custom Python engine · View on GitHub
Pick my brain