Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Bollinger Band Squeeze

Unprofitable

Detects low-volatility squeezes (BB inside Keltner Channels) and trades the breakout direction using MACD.

Total P&L
$-6.6K
from $10K starting
Win Rate
40%
656W / 986L
Total Trades
1,642
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025
Max Drawdown
78.5%
avg hold 8.8h
Equity Curve — 5 Year Backtest
Equity curve$3.4K$6.3K$9.3K$12.2K$15.2K$18.1K2020-012020-112021-092022-082023-062024-052025-032025-03
Monthly P&L
Monthly P&L20-01 20-08 21-03 21-10 22-05 22-12 23-07 24-02 24-09 +$514-$514
Deep Dive
The Bollinger Band Squeeze strategy identifies periods of compressed volatility — when Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channels, forming a "squeeze." The theory is that low volatility precedes high volatility, so a squeeze signals an impending explosive move. The strategy waits for the squeeze to release (BB expanding outside KC), then enters in the direction indicated by the MACD histogram. If MACD is positive, it goes long; if negative, it goes short. Across 1,642 trades over 5 years, this produced a 40% win rate and a -75% cumulative loss. The primary failure mode is directional accuracy — the MACD histogram is not a reliable predictor of breakout direction on hourly candles. Many squeezes resolve with a false breakout in one direction before reversing. A significant data quality issue also emerged: 798 trades (nearly half) had low quality scores, suggesting the squeeze detection criteria were triggering on noisy data rather than genuine volatility contractions. The squeeze concept has merit — it correctly identifies periods of compressed volatility. The directional component needs a different approach, perhaps waiting for price to break a range rather than relying on MACD, or using the first candle after the squeeze releases to determine direction.
Parameters
Squeeze:BB inside Keltner Channel
Direction:MACD histogram sign
Timeframe:1h candles
Loss Analysis — Failure Modes
Low Qual Score
798
Stop Too Tight
23
Adverse Move
6
Low Volatility Chop
2
Top Symbols by Trade Count
ZEC
23
ARPA
22
ETC
21
LTC
20
IOTX
20
BTC
20
ZIL
20
TRX
20
RVN
19
BAND
19

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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