Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Correlation Break

Profitable

Computes the expected return of an altcoin given BTC's 1-hour return using linear regression. When the alt's actual return diverges significantly from what BTC predicts, the strategy trades the reversion.

Total P&L
+$60.73M
from $10K starting
Win Rate
52.9%
5053W / 4501L
Total Trades
9,554
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025
Max Drawdown
20.5%
avg hold 1.4h
Equity Curve — 5 Year Backtest
Equity curve$22.0K$52.5M$105.0M$157.5M$210.0M$262.5M2020-012020-112021-102022-082023-072024-052025-03
Monthly P&L
Monthly P&L20-01 20-08 21-03 21-10 22-05 22-12 23-07 24-02 24-09 +$8.6M-$8.6M
Deep Dive
The Correlation Break strategy exploits the tight correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins. In crypto markets, altcoins tend to move in lockstep with BTC — but not perfectly. When an altcoin temporarily deviates from its expected BTC-correlated move, this strategy identifies the dislocation and bets on mean reversion. The algorithm computes a rolling linear regression of each altcoin's hourly returns against BTC's hourly returns. This gives an "expected return" for the alt given what BTC did. The divergence (actual minus expected) is the trading signal. When divergence falls below -0.08 (the alt underperformed BTC more than expected), the strategy goes long, expecting the alt to catch up. When divergence exceeds 0.065 (the alt overperformed), it goes short, expecting a pullback. A blacklist filters out low-alpha coins that track BTC too closely to generate meaningful divergences. The asymmetric thresholds (-0.08 long vs 0.065 short) reflect that altcoins tend to overreact to the upside more than the downside. This strategy generated the highest returns in backtesting across 65+ altcoins over 5 years, primarily due to the sheer number of trading opportunities (9,500+ trades) and a win rate above 50%. The high P&L figure reflects compounded returns without position size limits — real trading would require strict risk management.
Parameters
Long threshold:divergence < -0.08
Short threshold:divergence > 0.065
Stop loss:3%
Take profit:5%
Reference asset:BTC
Regression window:Rolling hourly returns
Blacklist:EOS, QTUM, TRX, LTC, BNT, NEO, ATOM, ADA, ICX, THETA
Loss Analysis — Failure Modes
Entered Pump Top
2122
Stop Too Tight
1058
Adverse Move
295
Low Volatility Chop
131
Profit Reversal
49
Top Symbols by Trade Count
OGN
141
ARPA
129
TFUEL
119
ONG
119
ANKR
114
MTL
111
STX
108
COS
107
FET
105
IOTX
104

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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