Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Fear & Greed Contrarian

Unprofitable

Takes contrarian positions based on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Goes long on extreme fear, shorts on extreme greed.

Total P&L
$-177.34
from $10K starting
Win Rate
50%
6W / 6L
Total Trades
12
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025
Max Drawdown
2.7%
avg hold 12h
Equity Curve — 5 Year Backtest
Equity curve$9.8K$9.9K$10.0K$10.0K$10.1K$10.2K2020-012020-122021-112022-112023-102024-102025-03
Monthly P&L
Monthly P&L20-01 20-06 20-12 21-06 21-11 22-05 22-11 23-05 23-10 24-04 24-10 25-03 +$151-$151
Deep Dive
The Fear & Greed Contrarian strategy uses the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (FGI) — a composite sentiment indicator derived from volatility, market momentum, social media, dominance, and Google Trends — as a contrarian signal. The premise is classic: when the crowd reaches extreme pessimism (FGI <= 15), capitulation is likely near its end, making it a good time to buy. When euphoria peaks (FGI >= 90), a correction is overdue. The strategy restricts itself to BTC and ETH only, since the FGI primarily reflects sentiment about the overall crypto market rather than specific altcoins. In backtesting over 5 years, the extreme thresholds (15 and 90) produced only 12 qualifying signals. This tiny sample makes it impossible to draw statistical conclusions. The 50% win rate and near-break-even P&L suggest the signal has some validity but the implementation needs refinement — perhaps wider thresholds, graduated position sizing based on FGI level, or combining FGI with other signals. The core issue is timing: the FGI can stay at extreme levels for days or weeks, and the strategy lacks a mechanism to determine when the extreme will actually reverse.
Parameters
Long trigger:FGI <= 15
Short trigger:FGI >= 90
Assets:BTC, ETH only
Loss Analysis — Failure Modes
Adverse Move
5
Top Symbols by Trade Count
BTC
4
ETH
2

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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