Fear & Greed Contrarian
UnprofitableTakes contrarian positions based on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Goes long on extreme fear, shorts on extreme greed.
Deep Dive
The Fear & Greed Contrarian strategy uses the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (FGI) — a composite sentiment indicator derived from volatility, market momentum, social media, dominance, and Google Trends — as a contrarian signal.
The premise is classic: when the crowd reaches extreme pessimism (FGI <= 15), capitulation is likely near its end, making it a good time to buy. When euphoria peaks (FGI >= 90), a correction is overdue.
The strategy restricts itself to BTC and ETH only, since the FGI primarily reflects sentiment about the overall crypto market rather than specific altcoins.
In backtesting over 5 years, the extreme thresholds (15 and 90) produced only 12 qualifying signals. This tiny sample makes it impossible to draw statistical conclusions. The 50% win rate and near-break-even P&L suggest the signal has some validity but the implementation needs refinement — perhaps wider thresholds, graduated position sizing based on FGI level, or combining FGI with other signals.
The core issue is timing: the FGI can stay at extreme levels for days or weeks, and the strategy lacks a mechanism to determine when the extreme will actually reverse.
Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage