Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Mean Reversion

Unprofitable

Uses Bollinger Band extremes (backtest) or VWAP deviation (production) to trade mean reversion.

Deep Dive
The Mean Reversion strategy trades the tendency of prices to return to their average after extreme deviations. In backtesting, it uses Bollinger Band extremes; in production, it switches to VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) deviations. The Bollinger Band version triggers when price touches or penetrates the outer bands, combined with a confirmation candle and volume filter. The VWAP version triggers when price deviates more than 3% from the VWAP. Despite the theoretically sound premise, neither version generated any trades in backtesting. Zero. The combination of filters — Bollinger Band extreme + confirmation candle + volume requirement — is so restrictive on hourly data that all three conditions never trigger simultaneously. This is an important lesson in strategy design: each individual filter makes sense, but layering them creates an impossible-to-satisfy conjunction. The fix would be to relax individual filters (e.g., remove the volume requirement, or widen the BB deviation threshold) and accept a lower per-trade win rate in exchange for actually generating signals. The VWAP version used in production has different dynamics since it uses real-time intraday data, but its backtest performance remains unknown due to the hourly data limitation.
Parameters
Backtest mode:Bollinger Band extremes
Production mode:VWAP deviation (>3%)

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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