Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Momentum Swing

Unprofitable

A 1-hour momentum breakout strategy that buys when price shows strong upward momentum with volume confirmation.

Total P&L
$-8.3K
from $10K starting
Win Rate
37.7%
2359W / 3896L
Total Trades
6,255
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025
Max Drawdown
99.5%
avg hold 6.7h
Equity Curve — 5 Year Backtest
Equity curve$1.7K$6.2K$10.7K$15.3K$19.8K$24.3K2020-012020-112021-092022-072023-062024-042025-022025-03
Monthly P&L
Monthly P&L20-01 20-08 21-03 21-10 22-05 22-12 23-07 24-02 24-09 +$889-$889
Deep Dive
The Momentum Swing strategy attempts to capture large directional moves by entering when an asset shows a significant price spike (+2%+) accompanied by a volume surge (2x+ average). The fundamental problem is latency. On hourly candles, by the time momentum is confirmed — meaning the current candle has already closed with a big green move and high volume — the initial move is largely over. The strategy systematically buys pump tops. Backtesting across 6,255 trades confirmed the predictable failure mode: a 37.7% win rate with losses accumulating to near-total drawdown. The most common issue was "adverse move" (entering at the top of a momentum candle and immediately facing a reversal) and "low volatility chop" (buying momentum that fails to follow through). This strategy could theoretically work on much lower timeframes (1-minute or 5-minute candles) where momentum signals are more timely. The hourly version is too slow to capture fast-moving crypto markets.
Parameters
Timeframe:1h candles
Direction:Long on breakout
Price trigger:+2% move
Volume filter:2x average
Loss Analysis — Failure Modes
Adverse Move
1912
Low Volatility Chop
915
Stop Too Tight
388
Profit Reversal
165
Missed Take Profit
6
Top Symbols by Trade Count
MTL
93
BAND
90
RLC
84
ARPA
83
STX
81
DUSK
78
KAVA
75
CELR
75
BAT
72
COS
71

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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