Trend Following
UnprofitableFollows trends using EMA(9)/EMA(21) crossovers. Enters long on bullish cross, exits on bearish cross.
Deep Dive
The Trend Following strategy uses a fast EMA(9) / slow EMA(21) crossover system — one of the simplest and most widely-used trend detection approaches. When EMA(9) crosses above EMA(21), it signals an uptrend; when it crosses below, a downtrend.
With 14,345 trades over 5 years (the highest trade count of any strategy), this generated enormous volume but a losing 43.6% win rate, resulting in total bankruptcy of the starting capital.
The problem is whipsaw. Crypto markets, especially on hourly timeframes, are characterized by choppy, mean-reverting price action punctuated by sharp directional moves. The EMA crossover system enters and exits on every minor swing, accumulating fees and small losses during the extended sideways periods that dominate crypto trading.
The top three issues tell the story: "adverse move" (3,744 occurrences) — entering trends that immediately reverse; "low volatility chop" (2,422) — trading in sideways markets where no trend exists; and "profit reversal" (294) — trends that start profitably but reverse before hitting the take profit.
Trend following works best in markets with extended trending periods (commodities, FX majors). Crypto's hourly microstructure is too noisy for this approach without significant adaptation.
Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage