Prateek Jain

Strategy Playbook

Trend Following

Unprofitable

Follows trends using EMA(9)/EMA(21) crossovers. Enters long on bullish cross, exits on bearish cross.

Total P&L
$-8.2K
from $10K starting
Win Rate
43.6%
6250W / 8095L
Total Trades
14,345
Jan 2020 — Mar 2025
Max Drawdown
99.5%
avg hold 10.2h
Equity Curve — 5 Year Backtest
Equity curve$1.8K$6.9K$11.9K$16.9K$21.9K$27.0K2020-012020-112021-102022-082023-072024-052025-03
Monthly P&L
Monthly P&L20-01 20-08 21-03 21-10 22-05 22-12 23-07 24-02 24-09 +$1K-$1K
Deep Dive
The Trend Following strategy uses a fast EMA(9) / slow EMA(21) crossover system — one of the simplest and most widely-used trend detection approaches. When EMA(9) crosses above EMA(21), it signals an uptrend; when it crosses below, a downtrend. With 14,345 trades over 5 years (the highest trade count of any strategy), this generated enormous volume but a losing 43.6% win rate, resulting in total bankruptcy of the starting capital. The problem is whipsaw. Crypto markets, especially on hourly timeframes, are characterized by choppy, mean-reverting price action punctuated by sharp directional moves. The EMA crossover system enters and exits on every minor swing, accumulating fees and small losses during the extended sideways periods that dominate crypto trading. The top three issues tell the story: "adverse move" (3,744 occurrences) — entering trends that immediately reverse; "low volatility chop" (2,422) — trading in sideways markets where no trend exists; and "profit reversal" (294) — trends that start profitably but reverse before hitting the take profit. Trend following works best in markets with extended trending periods (commodities, FX majors). Crypto's hourly microstructure is too noisy for this approach without significant adaptation.
Parameters
Fast EMA:9 periods
Slow EMA:21 periods
Direction:Long and short
Loss Analysis — Failure Modes
Adverse Move
3744
Low Volatility Chop
2422
Profit Reversal
294
Entered Pump Top
207
Missed Take Profit
118
Stop Too Tight
96
Top Symbols by Trade Count
BTC
211
BNB
192
ETH
185
LINK
170
XTZ
168
TRX
168
ATOM
159
ADA
157
XRP
157
DOGE
152

Backtested on hourly OHLCV data across 65+ symbols from Jan 2020 to Mar 2025 — $10,000 initial balance — 0.1% commission — 0.05% slippage

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